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January 6, 2025

Weekly Stock Watch: Major Moves from American Airlines, Vertex, Alphabet, and Block Inc.

Hereโ€™s a summary of significant upgrades and downgrades impacting major stocks this week, highlighting analyst insights and market reactions.


1. American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL)

  • Recent Upgrades
    Raymond James upgraded American Airlines from Market Perform to Outperform with a $24 price target, recognizing an improved revenue forecast along with strategic benefits stemming from a new co-branded credit card partnership.

  • Performance Highlights:

    • Revenue Forecast: The 4Q24 year-over-year RASM guidance has been raised to 0-1%, with EPS estimates adjusted from $0.25-$0.50 to $0.55-$0.75.
    • Citi Collaboration: A ten-year co-branded card initiative beginning in 2026 is expected to enhance annual cash returns by approximately 10%.
    • Future Growth Path: This positions American to more closely align with Deltaโ€™s cash goals for 2030.
  • Market Outlook:
    Analysts perceive the risk-reward profile to be appealing, projecting an outperformance against the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next year to year and a half.


2. Vertex (NASDAQ: VRTX)

  • What Happened?
    DA Davidson commenced coverage of Vertex with a Buy rating and a $62 price target, highlighting the firm’s capability to maintain value growth while leveraging its competitive edge.

  • Highlights:

    • Market Growth Potential: Vertex exhibits a solid presence in a steadily growing market, benefiting from favorable disruptive catalysts.
    • Competitive Advantages: Analysts commend Vertexโ€™s infrastructure, supporting margin improvement.
    • Long-Term Value Outlook: This positions the company well for ongoing growth and value creation for shareholders.
  • Market Outlook:
    Vertex is anticipated to effectively compound long-term shareholder value with continued earnings and margin progress.


3. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)

  • Recent Downgrade
    JMP Securities downgraded Alphabet from Outperform to Market Perform, citing potential litigation risks from anti-trust issues.

  • Key Points:

    • Regulatory Concerns: Analysts flagged worries over the U.S. search distribution ruling expected in August 2025, potentially impacting Google’s revenues.
    • Valuation Outlook: Although Alphabet delivered a 37% annual return in 2024, uncertainties surrounding legal outcomes temper future growth expectations.
    • Cautious Recommendation: While likely appeals may postpone enforcement, analysts advocate waiting for clarification before becoming bullish again.
  • Market Outlook:
    Stock performance is expected to align with the Russell 3000 Index in light of legal risks potentially keeping shares range-bound.


4. Block Inc. (NYSE: SQ)

  • Recent Upgrade
    Raymond James upgraded Block Inc. to Outperform with a $115 price target based on optimistic projections for its 2025 growth trajectory.

  • Positive Highlights:

    • Accelerating Seller GPV: Pessimistic sentiments surrounding Gross Payment Volume growth in the Seller segment.
    • Expansion Prospects: Block’s ecosystem is primed to capitalize on market share opportunities as digital payments continue to broaden.
    • Strategic Focus for Growth: Increased emphasis on broadening product offerings to maintain revenue momentum.
  • Market Outlook:
    Analysts are optimistic regarding Blockโ€™s ability to achieve returns exceeding market averages over the next year to year and a half, driven by structural advantages in digital payments.


Key Summary of Analyst Recommendations

Stock Rating Price Target Key Drivers
American Airlines Outperform (Raymond James) $24 New Citi card deal, optimistic revenue forecast.
Vertex Buy (DA Davidson) $62 Sustained value growth and advantages.
Alphabet Market Perform (JMP) N/A Legal risks challenge outlook.
Block Inc. Outperform (Raymond James) $115 Seller GPV growth, digital payments expansion.

Utilize Entreprenerdlyโ€™s Key Metrics (TTM) and Company Rating APIs for further insights into stock potential and sector trends.

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