Introduction

Puma SE (ETR:PUMG) (OTC:PMMAF) saw its shares plunge over 24% on Wednesday after the German sportswear leader slashed its full-year 2025 profit forecast, significantly underperforming market expectations. The company attributed the decline to weak demand in crucial markets like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical and economic pressures.

Highlights from Puma’s Revised Forecast

1. Revenue Growth Expectations Lowered

• Puma now anticipates low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth for 2025.
• This marks a notable downgrade from the original 6.7% consensus projection.

2. Significant EBIT Downgrade

• Puma’s revised forecast sets the new adjusted EBIT range at €520M – €600M (down from a €700M consensus).
• First-quarter sales are expected to decline in the low single digits, contrary to the previous estimate of +6.9% growth.
• Adjusted EBIT for Q1 is now projected at €70M compared to an earlier forecast of €189M consensus.
• Including one-time cost efficiency program charges, full-year EBIT could drop to €445M – €525M, approximately 30% below expectations.

3. Reactions from Analysts & Investors

• Barclays and Morgan Stanley have raised concerns over whether Puma’s lowered guidance represents a cautious approach or reflects deeper macroeconomic challenges.
• Retailers are worried about Puma’s sportstyle segment losing traction, with risks of order cancellations if the Speedcat collection underperforms in Q2.

Market Risks & Outlook

• Weakening Consumer Demand: Declining sales in both the U.S. and China impact Puma’s business.
• Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty: The company warns of a difficult macroeconomic landscape in 2025.
• Competitive Pressures: Competitors like Nike and Adidas continue to capture market share.

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• Balance Sheet Statements API
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• Earnings Historical API
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Conclusion

Puma’s profit warning underscores potential macroeconomic weaknesses in the retail sector. While the company is concentrating on cost efficiency, investors remain anxious about its growth potential and order stability. The upcoming quarterly earnings report and Speedcat rollout details will be crucial for Puma’s future trajectory.