Oil prices made a modest recovery on Thursday after experiencing a 2% decline. Investors are trying to balance the discussion about potential increases in OPEC+ output with conflicting trade signals coming from Washington, alongside ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.

Oil Price Movements

• Brent (June) Futures: Increased by $0.08 (0.12%) to $66.20/bbl

• WTI Futures: Rose by $0.09 (0.14%) to $62.36/bbl

• Previous Close: Both contracts fell nearly 2% on Wednesday

OPEC+ Disagreements

• Potential June Production Increase: Reports indicate that several OPEC+ members are advocating for another monthly output increase.

• Kazakhstan’s Position: The country is prioritizing its national interests over OPEC+ quotas, sparking concerns about the possibility of a price war.

• Risk of Non-Compliance: Current compliance is already inconsistent, and further disagreements could lead to an oversupply in the market.

Trade Tensions Over Tariffs

• Trump’s Stance on Tariffs: The White House has hinted it might reduce tariffs on China to between 50% and 60% to encourage negotiations, but no definitive offer has been made.

• Investor Response: Reactions have been mixed; while hopes for de-escalation are supporting risk assets, unclear details limit the upside for oil prices.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Negotiations

• Diplomatic Talks: Important discussions are taking place in Oman focused on nuclear frameworks, but sanctions imposed on Iran’s LPG network keep energy tensions high.

• Impact on Supply: Progress in negotiations could relieve some risk premia in the Middle East, while setbacks could drive demand for oil as a safe haven.

Outlook for Oil Traders

1. OPEC+ Meeting in Early June

   • Investors should keep an eye on output decisions and compliance statements from OPEC+ members.

2. U.S. EIA Inventory Report Due Tomorrow

   • Weekly crude stock data will indicate whether supplies are tightening.

3. Flash PMIs and Trade Updates

   • Look for demand cues from U.S. and China releases as well as updates on tariffs that could introduce policy risks.

Stay Informed on Policy and Supply Dynamics

Keep up with important OPEC+ meetings, updates on U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions, and major economic releases with the
Entreprenerdly.com Economics Calendar. This tool provides real-time schedules and insights on events that impact oil volatility.