Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) is facing increasing scrutiny as its highly regarded weight-loss drug, Wegovy, shows signs of plateauing prescriptions following its successful launch in 2021. New data indicates that U.S. prescriptions have stagnated, while competition from Eli Lilly’s new drug, Zepbound, intensifies. This situation raises alarms for investors as the company approaches its Q1 earnings report on May 7.

Prescription Trends in the U.S.

• IQVIA Data Insights: Weekly prescription numbers for Wegovy have plateaued since mid-February, even as shipments have increased.

• Investor Worries: The stagnation could signal challenges in market penetration and maintaining patient retention.

Increased Competition Impact

• Zepbound’s Rapid Growth: Eli Lilly’s competitor has surpassed Wegovy with an additional 128,000 prescriptions in the week ending April 11.

• Market Share Pressures: Rising switching rates and various sampling programs may suppress Novo’s volume growth.

Projected Financial Guidance Challenges

• Previous Growth Forecast: Novo projected 16-24% sales growth for 2025, which has already been tempered compared to prior years.

• Analyst Predictions:

  • Consensus from 25 Analysts: Approximate growth of 19%

  • Bank of America Adjustments: Downgraded expectations to 14-22%, reflecting concerns about growth hitting its lowest point since 2021.

  • Insight from Bellevue’s Lukas Leu: He indicated a strong possibility of a guidance cut coming.

Challenges from Trade Tensions

• Tariff Implications: New tariffs enforced by the Trump administration could affect product costs, squeezing margins and complicating supply chains.

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