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Future Stock Prices Simulations with Monte Carlo

Using Historical and Implied Volatility for Estimating Future Price Probabilities

Forecast Future Stock Price Estimates

Use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate potential future stock price movements. By analyzing historical volatility and implied volatility from the Black-Scholes-Merton model, the tool generates multiple scenarios for stock price trajectories.

Data Retrieval and Simulations

Retrieve historical stock price data for a specified ticker. The tool then uses historical volatility and the Black-Scholes-Merton volatility to simulate future stock price movements, generating a range of possible future prices.

Data Visualization and Threshold Analysis

Visualize simulated stock price paths, showing potential price trajectories, along with 68% and 95% confidence intervals. This helps users understand the range and likelihood of future price outcomes. The tool also calculates the probabilities of the stock price exceeding upper thresholds or falling below lower thresholds, offering insights for risk management and investment decisions.

Key Benefits

  • Real-Time Data Analysis: Use up-to-date stock price data for accurate simulations.
  • Comprehensive Simulations: Generate multiple scenarios to provide a thorough understanding of potential future price movements.
  • Visual Insights: Offer clear visual representations of simulation results, including confidence intervals and probability calculations.
  • Customizable Parameters: Allows users to adjust time horizons, number of simulations, and volatility measures to explore different scenarios.
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