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January 22, 2025

Walt Disney Stock Analysis: Citi Projects Strong Growth and Attractive Investment Opportunity

Citi analysts have resumed their coverage of the Walt Disney Company with a Buy rating. They highlight the stock as presenting an attractive risk-reward opportunity based on current valuations. The optimism stems from the companyโ€™s long-term growth potential, especially within streaming and entertainment sectors.

Citi’s Earnings Forecast

Citi’s projections for Disney’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth are listed as follows:

  • 8% growth in FY 2025
  • 11% growth in FY 2026
  • 13% growth in FY 2027

These projections are in line with Disney’s forecasts of high single-digit EPS growth for FY 25 and anticipated double-digit growth in the years following. However, Citiโ€™s estimates of an expected $5.35 EPS for FY 25 and $5.95 EPS for FY 26 fall slightly below consensus expectations by 2% and 4% respectively.

Target Prices and Growth Catalysts

Citi set a target price of $125, hinting at a 15% upside from Disney’s current trading value of $108.70 as of January 21.

The growth prospects identified by Citi include:

  1. Growth in Streaming:
    • Expected to reach approximately 10% EBIT margins by 2027.
    • Predicted annual ARPU growth of 2-4%.
    • Subscriber growth of:
      • 8 million in FY 25
      • 7 million in FY 26
      • 6 million in FY 27
  2. Integration with Hulu Live-Fubo:
    • Expected to finalize by fiscal Q3 2026.
    • Projected annual synergies of about $140 million.
  3. Recovery in Entertainment Segment:
    • Citi predicts a 20% rebound in box office revenues in FY 25, enhancing Disneyโ€™s media revenue.

Risk Scenarios

Citi has outlined both bullish and bearish scenarios affecting Disney’s stock prices:

  • Bearish Case:
    • Economic slowdowns or intensified competition could reduce stock prices to approximately $96.
  • Bullish Case:
    • Faster-than-expected ARPU growth and better valuation could see prices soar to $134.

Disney’s Forward Outlook

Citi remains optimistic about Disneyโ€™s transition to profitability within streaming while maintaining investments in parks and cruise segments to secure long-term growth. The firm highlights Disney’s potential upturn based on strategic initiatives and investments.

Monitoring Disneyโ€™s Financial Performance

Investors interested in staying updated on Disneyโ€™s performance can use various resources offered by Entreprenerdly.com:

Conclusion

With its strategic emphasis on streaming growth, monetization of content, and potential improvements in the entertainment sector, Citi regards Disney as an enticing investment choice. While short-term challenges exist, the long-term forecast appears bright, bolstered by robust brand equity and strategic undertakings.

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