President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25 tariff on imported aluminum and steel effective March 4 is expected to boost U S metal prices with aluminum likely to see a more sustained impact than steel according to Wolfe Research.

Key Details of the Tariff Plan

• The 25 tariffs will apply to semi-finished and finished metal products.
• Scrap metal and alumina are not included in the tariffs.
• While Trump has stated no exemptions reports suggest that Australia may receive an exclusion.

Aluminum Market Impact

Why Aluminum Prices Could Surge

• The U S aluminum market is structurally short with 47 of demand met by imports.
• Two domestic smelters have recently shut down tightening local supply.
• Wolfe Research suggests that Century Aluminum NASDAQ CENX and Alcoa NYSE AA are best positioned to benefit.

Projected Price Increase

• If the Midwest Premium MWP aligns with the 25 tariff it could rise to $0.45 lb from the 2024 average of $0.19 lb.
• Alcoa AA and Century Aluminum CENX have estimated:
  • $146 million and $41 million in benefits respectively for every $100 ton ~$0.05 lb increase in MWP.
  • This impact could double CENX’s 2024 EBITDA and account for 50 of AA’s.

Steel Market Impact

Expected Short-Term Price Gains

• Hot rolled coil HRC steel prices could jump to $900 ton from the current $775 ton.
• However Wolfe Research predicts prices will retreat in H2 2025 as domestic supply increases.

Beneficiaries in the Steel Industry

• U S Steel Steel Dynamics NASDAQ STLD and Cleveland-Cliffs NYSE CLF are expected to gain.
• Rebar producers like Commercial Metals CMC and Nucor NYSE NUE could also benefit due to added trade protections.

Investment Insights & Market Tracking

For real-time monitoring of commodity and metal price movements investors can utilize:

• Commodities API Track aluminum steel and industrial metal prices in response to tariffs.
• Key Metrics API Analyze financial impacts on companies like Alcoa Century Aluminum and U S Steel.

Conclusion

While Trump’s tariffs could create short-term price surges in aluminum and steel the long-term impact depends on supply dynamics and policy changes. With U S producers poised to benefit investors should watch for market reactions earnings reports and tariff adjustments in the coming months.