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January 17, 2025

Stock Market Valuation Signals High Risks Based on Earnings Yield Model

The current earnings yield of the S&P 500 Index has slid beneath the recently rising yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury. This gap suggests a troubling long-term risk premium for stocks. Investors should analyze these signals closely to understand market valuation dynamics. Awareness of yield trends can provide essential guidance for investment strategies. Markets may face challenges as the divergence between stock yields and Treasury returns indicates potential pitfalls awaiting investors. A strategic reevaluation of portfolios could be vital in this context, as danger lurks within conventional valuation assumptions.

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