RBC Global Mining Equities has revised its gold price outlook, projecting stronger growth for the precious metal through 2025 and beyond. These updated forecasts account for rising mining costs, monetary policy insights, and broader economic conditions.

Updated Gold Price Projections

Key Drivers Behind the Forecast

• Machine Learning Insights: RBC’s updated model includes recent data and economic indicators.
• Mining Cost Increases: Higher production costs contribute to elevated medium-term forecasts.
• Monetary Policy Outlook: Forecasts presume stable monetary policy with no immediate risk of recession.

Potential 2025 Scenarios

• Bullish Scenario: In a recession coupled with aggressive monetary easing, gold could reach $3,300/oz.
• Bearish Scenario: If economic conditions unexpectedly improve, prices may fall to $2,700/oz.

Gold Equities and Investor Sentiment

• Gold Equities Performance: Up 23% YTD, outperforming gold’s 11% YTD gain.
• ETF Outflows: Despite strong equity performance, gold equity ETFs saw record withdrawals, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Investment Insights

• Neutral Gold Prices for 2025: RBC suggests that current gold prices (~$2,900/oz) align closely with their 2025 forecast.
• Equity Potential: The investment bank sees promise in gold equities focusing on capital returns and dividend growth.

Conclusion:

RBC’s outlook on gold suggests a favorable market for precious metals due to economic factors. Investors interested in gold should consider equities alongside gold prices for a balanced investment approach.