Raymond James has adjusted its price target for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) from $250 to $230 while keeping an Outperform rating due to growing concerns about tariff-related challenges that may pressure earnings in the coming years.

The firm reduced its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, projecting that persistent import tariffs could decrease Apple’s EPS by 8 percent to 10%. Although Apple has increased manufacturing outside of China—sufficient to satisfy approximately half of U.S. iPhone demand—the future tariff regulations on imports from India and Vietnam remain uncertain following a brief 90-day exemption.

Raymond James anticipates a 15 percent blended tariff rate on all Apple imports, representing a careful base-case scenario in which Apple may respond by raising prices in the U.S., potentially reducing demand and compressing earnings.

For the March 2025 quarter, the firm increased its revenue estimates to $96.3 billion and EPS to $1.65, up from previous forecasts of $94.5 billion and $1.62, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 16e and ahead of possible tariff increases. Nonetheless, forecasts for June were slightly adjusted down to account for anticipated cost pressures, with EPS revised from $1.50 to $1.44 and gross margins expected to decline by about 100 basis points.

Apple is expected to implement price increases in the September quarter to counteract these impacts; however, Raymond James has lowered its 2025 EPS estimate from $7.31 to $7.15 and its 2026 forecast from $8.20 to $7.70.

Despite the volatility in the near term, the firm regards any pullbacks as a buying opportunity, pointing to Apple’s strong ecosystem, sustained double-digit growth in Services, and long-term potential in on-device AI.