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May 20, 2025

Oil Prices Face Stagnation with Geopolitical Tensions

Global oil prices remained stable on Tuesday, with June Brent futures hovering around $65.55 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at approximately $62.20. The market’s direction is being shaped by stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions, along with tentative ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Market Overview

  • Brent Futures: Trading at $65.55 per barrel

  • WTI Futures: Trading at $62.20 per barrel

  • Today’s Range: Brent saw a range of $65.30 to $65.80 while WTI fluctuated between $61.95 and $62.30.

Stalemate in U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Eases Supply Concerns

  • Iran’s Stance: Iran maintains that its uranium enrichment program is non-negotiable, keeping sanctions in place which limits supply.

  • Market Impact: Lack of breakthroughs will likely keep Iranian oil exports subdued, thus providing price support.

  • Futures Response: Market expectations of maintained supply levels have capped downside for crude prices.

Russia-Ukraine Discussions Affecting Market Sentiment

  • Peace Negotiations: President Trump recently announced a ceasefire plan with Russia and Ukraine, which adds uncertainty to demand projections.

  • Market Reactions: Successful negotiations could alleviate congestion in Black Sea exports, which may limit price increases.

Future Market Movements

  • Monitoring Iran Talks: Attention should be paid to any statements from U.S. and Iranian representatives; breakdowns may trigger volatility.

  • Ceasefire Updates: Outcomes from the Russia-Ukraine talks are likely to influence pricing and logistics in oil markets.

  • Watch Inventory Reports: The upcoming U.S. weekly stock data will be crucial as geopolitical dynamics evolve.

In conclusion, traders should remain alert for key events affecting supply and demand as geopolitical tensions persist and oil price movements evolve.

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