Oil prices experienced a slight uptick on Tuesday as traders navigated looming supply risks, particularly Iran’s anticipated rejection of a U.S. nuclear deal, while considering the backdrop of a slightly firmer dollar. Brent crude futures rose by 12 cents (0.19%) to $64.75 a barrel, whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 20 cents (0.32%) to $62.72 a barrel.

Geopolitical Factors Fueling Brent and WTI Increases

• Iran’s Stance on Nuclear Negotiations: Tehran is poised to reject the U.S. offer that could ease sanctions, keeping a significant OPEC producer from contributing to any output relief.

• OPEC+ Production Decisions: Early Monday, OPEC+ confirmed a 411,000 bpd increase in July—aligning with expectations but disappointing those anticipating a more substantial ramp-up, leading to unwinding of bearish positions.

ING analysts remarked that “with the worst fears not materializing, investors unwound their bearish positions established prior to the weekend meeting.”

Dollar Dynamics and Global Trade Uncertainty

• Dollar Near Six-Week Low: The dollar index is performing weakly as markets ponder President Trump’s tariff strategies and their potential implications for U.S. growth. A softer dollar typically benefits foreign buyers of dollar-denominated oil.

• Tariff Concerns Persist: Ongoing U.S.-China tensions contribute to risk aversion, bolstering oil’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset despite mixed signals regarding demand.

For live oil prices through API, refer to Entreprenerdly.com.

Key Points to Monitor This Week

1. U.S. Crude Inventories (Wednesday): Any unexpected build or draw in weekly stockpiles could significantly impact WTI prices.

2. OPEC+ Follow-Up Statements: Watch for commentary from Saudi Arabia and Russia regarding compliance and potential production adjustments.

3. Developments in Tariffs: Any fresh threats or de-escalation regarding U.S.-China tariffs might shift demand expectations for crude.

With significant supply issues stemming from Iran and an understated OPEC+ output increase, oil markets remain heightened to geopolitical or policy shocks. A minor dollar recovery might limit price gains, however, the prevailing tensions suggest limited downside in the near term.