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May 20, 2025

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Opportunity in Credit Downgrade Fallout

Morgan Stanley’s strategist Michael Wilson perceives the market selloff triggered by Moodyโ€™s recent credit downgrade to Aa1 as a shakeout rather than a fundamental error. He reminds investors that this downgrade caps a long-term trend that started back in 2011.

According to Wilson, equities remain appealing during dips below important technical levels. He cautions investors, however, that if the 10-year Treasury yields exceed 4.50%, a negative correlation between rates and stocks may emerge.

Wilson notes a significant easing of volatility as U.S.-China tariff rates were adjusted from 145% to 30%, providing a catalyst for potential market recovery. The focus now rests on achieving upward earnings revisions to sustain the marketโ€™s advance.

Sector rotations can be tracked with Entreprenerdly.com’s Ratios TTM API, allowing investors to analyze trailing valuations and identify areas with strong earnings revisions. Additionally, staying alert to Federal Reserve actions via the Economics Calendar API is essential for navigating shifting market dynamics.

Key Insights:

  • Watch the 10-year yield: Sustained increases beyond 4.50% could provoke further downward pressure on stocks.

  • Sector Opportunities: Industrials may lead based on earnings revision trends while consumer sectors could lag behind.

  • Continue Buying Dips: Seek opportunities during yields pressure, targeting strong cyclical stocks.

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