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April 30, 2025

Mondelez Surpasses Q1 Earnings Estimates but Faces Cocoa-Driven Margin Pressures

Mondelez International (NASDAQ: MDLZ) exceeded first-quarter earnings forecasts, although a combination of soaring cocoa prices and declining margins has resulted in cautious guidance.

The company announced adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share, surpassing the $0.66 consensus from analysts. Yet, this represents an 18.3 percent decline year-over-year on a constant currency basis, reflective of the mounting input cost pressures. Revenue tallied at $9.31 billion, closely aligning with estimates of $9.34 billion, but showed a slight 0.2 percent year-over-year increase. Organic net revenue grew by 3.1 percent, buoyed by price increases that mitigated a 3.5 percent drop in volume and product mix.

Management has reaffirmed its full-year 2025 outlook for about 5 percent organic net revenue growth. However, it has cautioned that adjusted EPS might decline by around 10 percent on a constant currency basis, attributing this to “unprecedented” cocoa cost inflation that has significantly raised raw material and production expenses.

Gross profit margin experienced a sharp decline, falling to 26.1 percentโ€”a decrease of 2,500 basis pointsโ€”due to mark-to-market losses on commodity and currency derivatives, alongside rising transportation and input costs.

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