JPMorgan has slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,200 while introducing a downside scenario predicting a fall to 4,000, driven by escalating recession fears and the consequences of recent tariff announcements. Analysts express that these trade policies could lead to significant economic shocks.

Scenario Analysis and Economic Outlook

• Downside Scenario: The S&P could drop to 4,000 if current policies remain intact, with dire recession risks looming from a sharp market pullback.
• Base Projection: The bank expects the S&P 500 to finish at 5,200, given some reduction of tariff pressures.
• Economic Growth Projections: Future risks could include a contraction in U.S. GDP alongside rising unemployment.

JPMorgan’s analysis conveys a challenging outlook for markets determined by impending policies. Investors should be poised to adapt as evolving situation unfolds amid tariff tensions.