Nvidia’s Price Target Adjustment

HSBC revised its price target on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) down by $10, setting it at $175. The adjustment stems from declining data center revenue forecasts, yet HSBC retains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, urging confidence in the Blackwell platform to offset a slower-than-expected GB200 ramp-up.

Valuation and Market Position

The adjusted price target reflects a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio slightly below Nvidia’s five-year average while remaining above similar semiconductor company valuations. This indicates a potential upside of 26% for Nvidia’s stock, showcasing long-term growth confidence.

Blackwell Revenue Projections

Despite supply chain challenges affecting GB200 shipments, HSBC forecasts stronger B200 GPU sales will enhance revenue in the first half of fiscal 2026, ensuring ongoing momentum for the Blackwell revenue strategy.

Revenue Expectations

HSBC has updated revenue projections for Nvidia:

• Q4 Fiscal 2025 Revenue: $40 billion (Surpassing the consensus estimate of $38.2 billion)
• Q1 Fiscal 2026 Revenue: $42.2 billion

This outlook suggests Nvidia’s upcoming earnings will perform strongly, particularly as B200 GPU sales will support Blackwell platform revenues.

AI GPU Demand and Cloud Expenditure Growth

Though some concern exists regarding AI GPU demand, HSBC reassures that increased capital expenditures from essential cloud service providers will bolster Nvidia’s long-term growth trajectory. Ongoing performance enhancements will be closely linked to the success of the B300/GB300 roadmap in the second half of fiscal 2026.

Conclusion

HSBC’s updated price target acknowledges short-term supply challenges. Still, it maintains an optimistic outlook, bolstered by Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU platform and rising AI adoption rates. Investors are encouraged to track B200 and GB200 ramp-ups, along with trends in cloud capex.