Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni has reduced his recession forecast for the U.S. to 35%, down from 45% previously projected in March. This adjustment reflects a shift in sentiment following better-than-expected jobs data and easing tariff pressures under the current administration.

The Godot Recession in Question

Yardeni humorously refers to the anticipated downturn as the “Waiting for Godot” recession, suggesting that fears of a downturn may have been exaggerated. Despite recent indicators indicating economic slowdown, Yardeni cites resilient labor data as a reassuring sign for continued growth.

He pointed to the April jobs report, which exceeded expectations, strengthening faith in the labor market. Though some leading indicators hint at a slowdown, the current activity index remains robust.

Tariff Delays Provide Market Relief

Earlier volatility regarding tariff announcements has lessened, largely due to the former President’s decision to postpone critical levies. This pause has fueled market optimism for renewed U.S.-China negotiations, particularly as political incentives grow ahead of upcoming elections.

Investors tracking economic indicators can stay updated on ratios like the Index of Leading Economic Indicators and labor market trends via real-time data feeds, ensuring informed decisions in these fluctuating conditions.

Yardeni’s recent adjustments suggest that while uncertainties remain, fundamentals still support a plausible soft landing for the economy.