Conditional Probability of Price Movements

Probability of price changes occurring conditional on initial price changes

Conditional Movements

This tool analyzes the conditional probabilities of stock or crypto price movements using historical data. By specifying the asset symbol, analysis periods, and percentage change thresholds, the app provides insights into the likelihood of subsequent price changes based on initial movements.

Estimate Future Trends with Conditional Probabilities

Understand how past price movements influence future trends. Our tool calculates conditional probabilities of subsequent price changes based on initial movements.

Tailored Analysis with Flexible Parameters

Customize your analysis to fit your specific needs. Define the first move as a percentage change over a certain number of days and the second move over another period. Adjust the percentage change thresholds to highlight significant moves.

Key Features

Distribution Plots: See the distribution of second move percentage changes.
Price Movement Markers: Identify significant moves on stock price charts.
Rolling Window Analysis: Explore conditional probabilities over different time windows.
Heatmap Analysis: Visualize probabilities across various thresholds.

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