Barclays has set a $325 price target and an Equalweight rating on Tesla (TSLA), cautioning that the electric vehicle manufacturer’s first-quarter deliveries are expected to disappoint market expectations.

The analysis points to initial data from January and February, alongside early March trends, suggesting a projected Q1 delivery figure of approximately 350,000 units. This estimate falls significantly below the consensus forecast of 400,000 units and Barclays’ earlier projections given after Tesla’s Q4 earnings.

This new forecast indicates a 30% drop compared to the previous quarter and a 10% decline year-over-year. Barclays indicated that many investors have anticipated these lower numbers, given the underwhelming delivery data released during the quarter.

Furthermore, the forecast also includes a predicted 20,000-unit drop in inventory, largely due to reduced production in China and lower global output while adapting to the Model Y Juniper refresh. Consequently, Barclays expects Tesla’s global inventory to settle between 70,000 and 80,000 units as Q1 concludes.