Asian markets edged down while oil prices spiked to five-month highs on Monday, driven by geopolitical tensions following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. While market movements remained restrained, the fear of retaliation from Iran—especially concerning the Strait of Hormuz—kept risk sentiment volatile.

Markets Watch for Iranian Responses

Major Asian indexes dipped modestly as geopolitical anxiety persisted, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down 0.1% and 0.2% respectively during the Asian market hours.

The dollar attracted mild safe-haven buying, with minimal shifts observed in bond markets, indicating that investors remain wary without entering full panic mode.

Oil prices reacted with ongoing concerns:

• Brent crude gained 1.4% to $78.07 after earlier reaching as high as $81.40.

• WTI crude rose 1.4% to $74.88.

Recent volatility followed President Trump’s announcement that strikes had significantly damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The key focus now is the potential for Tehran’s reprisal and related threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane where one-fifth of the global oil and gas supply passes through.

Strait of Hormuz: A Crucial Focus for Oil Markets

Analysts caution that any disruption—even partial—may lead to substantial price increases:

• JPMorgan reports that past regime changes in the region caused average oil price increases of approximately 30%.

• CBA analyst Vivek Dhar warns that even minor shipping disturbances could send Brent oil prices above $100.

• Goldman Sachs indicates that a total blockade could drive prices to $110/barrel.

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