April Brings Hope for S&P 500 Recovery Following March Selloff

The S&P 500 (SPX) appears poised to conclude March with a 6% decline, marking the worst performance since September 2022. However, historical patterns indicate that April could signal a revival.

Insights from BTIG Analyst Jonathan Krinsky:

• Since World War II, there have been seven instances of March declines exceeding 3%.
• In each case, the S&P 500 rebounded in April, averaging 5.92% gains.
• From April to December, markets ended positively in six of these instances, with 2001 being the exception.

Will History Repeat?
While Krinsky expresses caution regarding the medium-term outlook, he recognizes that April shows a bullish advantage based on precedents.

Market Indicators & Technical Signals

S&P 500 Retest & Volatility Index (VIX) Divergence

• The S&P 500 retested its mid-March intraday low (5504) before a bounce.
• The VIX did not reach new heights during the S&P 500 dip—similar to a pattern observed in January before a rally.

What This Means for Investors:
A historical rebound pattern in April may present buying opportunities. The divergence in the VIX indicates a possible near-term bottom for equities. Expect volatility, but the odds favor relief for the market soon.

Real-Time Market Data Tracking

Monitor market performance and technical signals using these APIs:

• Sector Historical API: Keep track of sector performance for spotting rebound opportunities.
• Technical Intraday (Williams) API: Analyze short-term trends including momentum and overbought/oversold conditions.

Final Thoughts

While April historically favors gains after a challenging March, economic uncertainties persist, including:

• Trade tariff risks and their influence on global trade.
• The upcoming March jobs report, providing insight into economic health and Fed policy direction.
• Inflation concerns and the potential responses from the Federal Reserve.

Investor Takeaway:
Will the S&P 500 replicate its historical April rally, or will macroeconomic uncertainties keep the pressure on the market?