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May 12, 2025

Weekly Market Outlook: Eye on Trade, CPI, Earnings, and Monetary Policy

With optimistic market movements following easing U.S.-China tensions, investors prepare for critical economic data and corporate earnings expected to influence market direction in upcoming days.


1. Trade Agreement Alleviates Strain

Washington and Beijing have come to an agreement, marking a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs with reductions to 10%. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated, “neither side sought a decoupling of their economies” and will pursue further discussions on broader economic matters.


2. Upcoming CPI Data

Aprilโ€™s Consumer Price Index will be released this week, with projections indicating a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.4%. This data will provide insights on whether recent trade measures have increased price pressures. Monitor these upcoming economic indicators closely.


3. Continuous Earnings Season

With over 70% of S&P 500 companies reporting, earnings are projected to rise 13.6% year-on-yearโ€”exceeding initial estimates. Notable retailers like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), and Loweโ€™s (NYSE:LOW) are set to report. Watch for trade-related cost impact in their guidance.


4. Upcoming Fed Speeches

With the Fed maintaining rates at 4.25%-4.5%, key figures including Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak. Markets will be attentive to hints about possible monetary policy shifts in response to tariff effects or slowing growth.


5. Congressional Tax Discussions

The House Ways and Means Committee will debate President Trumpโ€™s proposed tax reform plan. Key components include an expanded child tax credit alongside cuts for multinationals, although unresolved issues about SALT deductions and Medicaid funding persist. The outcome may influence consumer behavior and the wider economy.


Conclusion:
With trade risks subsiding, the next significant factors for the market will hinge on CPI data, corporate earnings, Fed comments, and tax legislation progress. Prepare for potential volatility as these developments unfold.

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