Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, has recalibrated his forecasts for the S&P 500, now projecting a best-case scenario target of 6000 by the close of 2025. This adjustment comes as Yardeni reduces earnings expectations in light of escalating stagflation risks stemming from U.S. tariff policies.

Key Revisions and Concerns

• Earnings Forecasts:
  Yardeni lowered the baseline earnings estimate for S&P 500 to $260 per share for 2025, reduced from $275. The 2026 estimate has also dropped to $300 from $320, echoing fears of a growth recession coupled with shrinking profit margins.

• Tariff Impact:
  With new tariffs imposed—particularly a 25% levy on cars and parts commencing in early April—risks for a stagflationary outcome have escalated. Yardeni now assigns a 45% probability to stagflation, up from 35%, and reduces the likelihood of his optimistic “Roaring 2020s” forecast to 55%.

• Price Targets:
  For 2025, the target range for S&P 500 is now set between 5100 and 6000, with a closing base-case at 6000. For 2026, projections range from 5950 to 7000.

Market Implications

These revisions highlight rising apprehension within the near-term U.S. equity outlook, shaped by a volatile trade policy atmosphere. While the overarching theme of growth in the “Roaring 2020s” persists, immediate challenges from tariff-related risks are causing analysts like Yardeni to adopt a more conservative viewpoint.

Investors wishing to delve deeper into the financial metrics driving these projections can find valuable insights about S&P 500 performance on Entreprenerdly.com.