Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) fell 10.66% this week following a disappointing announcement regarding the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
• The price sits close to the lower Bollinger Band at $80,411, indicating further downside risk.
• If BTC maintains below $90,200, a potential short-term drop of 4% is likely.
• Long-term, BTC could decline 12.3% to $73,000 if bearish market sentiments persist.

BTC Struggles After Disappointing Reserve Announcement

What Happened?

• The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement did not provide expected support to the market.
• BTC’s 10.66% loss over the week leaves it trading near crucial support levels.
• Investors anticipated a stronger signal from the U.S. government, but limited purchases led to negative sentiment.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

• High volatility continues, with technical indicators suggesting downward momentum.
• Traders should monitor the $80,411 level closely, as breaching it could trigger more serious losses.

Bollinger Bands Indicate Further Downside Risk

Short-Term Outlook (Daily Chart)

• BTC is currently trapped between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands.
• The lower band stands at $80,411; BTC needs to remain above this level to avoid a potential 4% decline.
• The middle band at $90,200 is crucial for potential recovery.

Likelihood of a Short-Term Rally?

• A rapid surge beyond $90,200 seems unlikely, pointing to BTC’s vulnerability to additional downturns.

Medium-Term Outlook (Weekly Chart)

• The weekly Bollinger Bands indicate a bearish trajectory, with a lower band at $73,000.
• If BTC continues within this range, a projected drop of 12.3% looms in the coming weeks.

Market Sentiment & Economic Indicators

Bearish Signals:

• Regulatory uncertainty weighs heavily on crypto markets.
• Weakness in the U.S. economy furthers market aversion.
• Declining BTC dominance indicates a rotation of capital out of crypto assets.

Hope for a Bullish Return?

• If BTC can overcome the $90,200 barrier, bullish momentum may return.
• Possible positive macroeconomic changes could ignite a rebound.

Final Thoughts

BTC faces a pivotal moment. A failure to surpass $90,200 could lead to a drop to $73,000. Traders must closely watch market activities and be prepared for potential regulatory developments.